Four S’s that matter to scouts

The Scouting Life

by TR Holler

It’s always nice to take a break and catch your breath, even when you enjoy your work, but after ten months, 160-plus games, and the need to thaw middle-aged bones, the off-season respite is most welcome. Time for barbecues, golf, and chilled lemonade to squeeze out what one can amidst the fleeting Minnesota summer.

Per usual, the Fourth of July rockets by and lo and behold, the first Da Beauty League social posts appear which, of course, signals that the annual Summer Showcase beckons. For this scout, the late-July Showcase at BIG is then the pre-cursor to the Bantam Elite League which owns August. Inhale the syrupy humidity, soak up some vitamin D, and warm those achy bones but don’t blink twice, otherwise you’ll realize the start of a new hockey season has commenced. That’s ok, truth be told, I’m getting antsy for the puck to drop as I loathe humidity! Parallel to most life endeavors, the scouting life is also a flat circle, filled with predictable routine, travel and undercooked concession stand hot dogs. Yet, there’s nowhere I would rather be than at a frosty rink taking notes on the next player crop and catching up with fellow puck purveyors as we decipher the hockey world from bantams to the NHL. Yeah, I double blinked and the 2024-25 scouting season is here!

SEASONAL RHYTHM:

The late-July Summer Showcase at BIG allows a peak of the state’s top MSHSL squads in a series of scrimmages sandwiched between tryouts for the annual Upper Midwest Fall Elite League. The Showcase is the official scouting kickoff to each season as a first look of players in a team setting with coaches. Albeit informally structured, the weekend provides initial notes on emerging players, their respective team roles, and emerging themes that will prove as trends or mirages throughout the upcoming Fall Elite League. Post Labor Day kicks off the fall Elite season where the first task is determining the players who departed for a ‘before & after’ season versus those who stay rostered with the Elites. Does taking the ‘before & after’ path affect a player’s ranking? Sure, but rarely. In as much as every player’s situation is unique, leaving early for a ‘before & after’ only elevates a player IF they make a productive, seamless transition to Tier 1 (USHL) juniors while maintaining a 200 ft. game. This success is often elusive, so it’s of rare concern, but again, IF a player exhibits a measurable level of success, it will vault their regional ranking, see: Hagen Burrows, C/LW, (Mtka/Tampa Bay ‘24).

The Fall Elite program competes through early November, culminating in an 8-team playoff, similar to the MSHSL annual state tourney by roughly the same 8-section set-up. The very next weekend finds another slate of eight teams battling in the IIT national tournament that includes Shattuck-St. Mary’s and teams from the east and Canada.

These Elite matchups are filled with scouts from every level of juniors, colleges, and a plethora of NHL scouts. I doubt there is a venue where you will find more scouts viewing Minnesota amateur HS players. I will have nearly 20 viewings of each Elite player as I distill my top-30 down to a top-20 for the upcoming MSHSL season which kickstarts in late November as the heart of the seasonal rhythm to the State of Hockey ushers anew. 

Post-Thanksgiving we have the NHL, NCAA, Juniors, and the HS ranks all in full-tilt competition. The MSHSL season, especially top-10 matchups during the holiday tournaments, help pair down my top-20 regional rankings into a top-15 as the tougher matchups help slot a player and provide more in-depth reports. I rarely scout a player versus unevenly matched teams as it simply doesn’t provide fair assessment, however if a ‘down matchup’ week/weekend, I will take best-available views and watch for one specific area in a targeted player, body language. In a highly favorable matchup, is the player still a good teammate? Carry the same fire? Are they displaying consistent sportsmanship (not showboating)? When all else is equal between players, these answers can be the behavioral differentiators in my rankings. From here, I consider road game performance, top-20 matchups, sectional rivalries/playoffs – it is these games that truly define and separate a player. These deep dives paint unique pictures through the darkest winter months as the bright light pressure intensifies leading up to the grand finale, the MSHSL state tourney at the X. Like clockwork, players will rise and fall during this crucial stretch and round out my regional rankings that now shape a bona fide top-10 ranking.

Post state tourney, the Ides of March bring Tier 1/U-18 viewings, so regionally, this means Shattuck players and their annual run at the national U-18 tournament help me finalize the merging of Shattuck players into the MSHSL player rankings. My annual deadline for the upper Midwest regions’ final NHL draft rankings is due early April and will hold steady for the annual June NHL draft guide. The last scouting venues of the season wrap up with the CCM/NIT festival in late April and concludes with the NAHL’s Final Four at Fogarty Arena. Tracking youth players begins at the CCM/NIT and rounds out during the annual August bantam elite league. A top-10 ranked, draft-eligible player means I will have viewed that player compete in 70+ games dating back to their bantam years, but even with deep knowledge of a player, I present at best, a 50/50 hypothesis on a player’s future. Why? Many factors, including linemate fluctuations, lack of next-level maturation, loss of passion for the game, coaching changes, transferring, etc. the list is endless. Hockey, like all of sport, is unpredictable, but hockey is also a worldwide sport, so the layers and level of competition are unlike most sports, but none provide such an incredible ride from amateur to pro. The commitment, time, and investments are deep, the struggles tangible, which only makes victory and memories that much sweeter.

THE EYES NEVER LIE:

The foundation for hockey scouting breaks down into the “Four S’s”;

Skill, Skating, Smarts, and Speed.

Each of the “Four S’s” provides the framework for breaking down players. Each is defined in a myriad of ways by different scouts/teams. I try to deep-dive into each ‘S’ with a pinch of modernity as the game of hockey is changing. The game is faster, trending smaller, and scoring is up, mostly by design. However, one must be diligent in not over-analyzing the modern game as one only needs revisit the NHL playoffs to see that a blend of modernity and old school led by a hot goalie, team defense, gritty compete-level, and a sprinkling of snipers is the blueprint to becoming a champion.

SKILL: A player has nice, soft hands for sending and receiving the puck, a rocket snapshot and lasers passes that are racking up the points, well, that’s great! Now, let’s dive deeper, shall we? What is the goals-to-assist ratio? For a center, I like to see 2-1 assists to goals ratio. For wingers? I prefer an inverse 2-1 goals to assist ratio. However, all must have tangible dimes in their stat line. Sharing is caring, as they say. Does the high-scorer rack up points versus top-ranked teams? Or just the lower-ranked teams? Let’s do a comparative analysis on that gap. Do they perform at same level in rivalry or sectional playoff games? Or do they shy away from rivalries, on the road, under the bright lights? Consistency in the creative realm of ‘soft skills’ is key and easy to spot so it’s a good starting point overall but always requiring a deeper dive. 

SKATING: Top-flight speed is great, gets one noticed quickly, but is not the be all-end all. Vertical speed on breakouts and odd-man rushes lifts the fans out of their seats, but hockey is played in tight, heavy traffic, so I look for agile four-way edgework, fluid hips for pivoting and transitional speed, especially initial short bursts from dead stops. Now, if we can couple high-traffic, balanced edgework with vertical speed? Trust me, scouts will find that player wherever they play. Smooth and deceptive change-of-pace skating that adjusts to game situations will always be valued over straight-line speed. Take Edmonton’s Connor McDavid, his blistering speed is amazing and fun to watch, but McDavid’s tight-space edgework, three-zone transitional speed, and odd-man rush deception is what truly separates him as the best player on the planet.

Analytics are important, but context is key. Nowhere does this come into play more than within the area of Smarts.

SMARTS: Most often referred to as ‘Hockey IQ’. A common phrase, but doesn’t really define anything, so let’s break it down. I prefer the label ‘Situational IQ’ – Does the player routinely locate their opponent in all zones? Are they chasing the puck versus playing ‘ahead’ of the puck, routinely positioning themselves ahead of the play, e.g., ‘where the puck WILL be’? Are the eyes/head up and surveying the action? Lastly, does the player approach the game with defensive acumen, playing team defense and allowing defensive efforts to fuel their offensive game? Is player deceptive on both ends of the ice with their feet and stick? If so, THIS is the player with high situational IQ, opposed to the routine defender who floats at the blue line, waiting for outlet passes. These are key elements that apply regardless of players position and are indicators of compete level. Want to get scratched off my list? Easy. Display low battle effort, avoid the corner grind, and never sacrifice blocking a shot with the body. Scoring is an impressive barometer, but only paints broad strokes – I am looking for full color detail, the tools deployed, the finite details of the game that paint clarity to a player’s game and provide separation within the rankings. It is the situational IQ that fuels compete level and vice versa – it is the key factor at all levels in hockey scouting.

When Skill, Skating, and Smarts are, in varying degrees, all present? This is when the ‘speed of the game’ takes on unique meaning. 

SPEED: Skating speed, both vertical and horizontal, pivoting, and backpedal are measured in various metrics, but falls under skating, here, ‘speed’ refers to ‘processing speed’. Processing the game involves discerning when to attack, to defend, opponent matchup strategy, situational adjustments, special teams’ leadership, etc. executing all of these without pause. Speed is how a player embraces and adjusts to these variables during a game, over the season, and especially post-season that paints the holistic player. Processing speed is purely reactionary, based in muscle memory of both brain and brawn, executed in-stride and once seen, is unmistakable. Career NHL special teams’ aces excel at processing and situational IQ. Know your strengths, your role then work to excel at them like nobody else.

If all else is equal after numerous viewings, analytical input, and critical matchups between two or three of my top-10 players I’ll divert to the intangibles; special teams play, leadership, coachability, and body language. The goal for a hockey scout is to be thorough, unbiased, and fair. To do so, a scout might interview the player or their coaching staff discussing off-ice endeavors, academic performance, and life goals. Ultimately, scouting is educated guesswork. We do our best, over time, to weigh multiple scenarios and categories against a plethora of games but again, the future is the hardest to predict.

Advice? Don’t ever rush or chase the game, simply let the game come to you for processing then, with all your heart and soul, outwork everybody. Play the game with the unbridled fun and passion you had as a peewee player. Do that and we will find you, wherever you are, because we are always watching, and the eyes never lie.

T.R. Holler is a regional amateur scout covering the Upper Midwest