Wild get a superstar defenseman, but did they give up too much?

by Bryan Zollman, Let’s Play Hockey

It’s hard to determine what’s real and what’s not on social media these days so when word broke of the Wild acquiring Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes in a blockbuster deal, I shrugged it off as puck propaganda. When I heard what the Wild had allegedly given up for Hughes? I was convinced it was click-bait, ‘fake news.’

No way the Wild would give up three former first rounders, including an emerging talent like Zeev Buium and a 2026 first rounder for Hughes. Would they?…Billy?…You didn’t, did you?…Billy?

Then, like a plexiglass shattering hit, social media blew up with even Elliotte Friedman-like sources reporting it was a done deal. The Wild would receive Hughes, perhaps the only defenseman in hockey who can be mentioned in the same breath as Cale Makar, in exchange for Marco Rossi (9^th overall in 2020), Liam Ohgren (19^th overall in 2022), and Buium (12^thoverall in 2024), plus the Wild’s 2026 1^st round pick. Whoa.

I had to read the fine print to make sure they didn’t throw in 2023 first rounder Charlie Stramel and Gus driving the team bus to sweeten the deal.

My first thought was the Wild gave up far too much. It felt akin to when you buy a new vehicle and the sticker price starts to outweigh the new car smell, the dealership disappears in the rearview mirror, and you fearfully gaze at the dash waiting for the check engine light to flash. “Ugh, what did I just do? The car I traded in was running just fine!”

The Wild have been like that trusty old pick-up people treat like family. A vehicle you become used to and appreciate the side door panel dings and the fact that the rear windows only sometimes roll up and down. A little running board rust here and there? That’s fine, it merely proves our memorable history together. A WILD, yet survivable roller-coaster ride.

While the Wild are banged up recently with injuries, they were still able to beat conference leaders Colorado and Dallas. They may not win an Indy 500 against the Stars or Avalanche, but in a demo derby, we liked our chances with the roster we had in place. No breaky? No fixy.

But Billy Guerin decided it was time to upgrade and put the pedal to the metal. So, buckle up Wild fans, because the general manager just made the biggest deal in franchise history, and we are about to go on a WILD ride that might blow the hair clean off your head.

The Good, the Bad and the (potentially) Ugly

For now, let’s pump the brakes and take a pit stop and analyze what went down and what the future may hold. And remember, trades can never be judged out of the gate. Like a long race, the true value of the deal won’t be determined until we have official results, in this case, until the playoffs.

The Good: Make no mistake, the Wild are getting a superstar defenseman in Quinn Hughes. He dished out 75 assists last year and should catapult the power play to Oiler-like status. Of his 432 career points, 44 percent (190) of them have come on the power play. Compare that to Jared Spurgeon (31 percent) and Brock Faber (29 percent) and the power play production is going to improve dramatically. Right now, the Wild rank 11^th in the league at a 21 percent clip. Dallas, Edmonton, and Pittsburgh are all in the top three and all over 31 percent. A mere 10 percent improvement is a good addition to anyone’s bottom line, and while power plays come and go during the season, come playoff time they elevate to game-changing status. Heck, anything that changes a game in April and May can change a series and we all know winning a playoff series has been the lump of coal in the Wild’s stocking for ten years and counting. It’s no time to take the foot off the gas now, folks.

Speculation has Hughes paired with Faber, which would create one of the top D-pairs in the league. Hughes is one of those players who could instantly make those around him better, meaning we are likely to see more offensive output from Faber and the likes of Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and other forwards who will benefit from Hughes’ playmaking ability, especially on a vaunted power play.

A player like Hughes can turn a 30-goal guy into a 40-goal guy and a 40-goal guy into a 50-goal guy. If Kaprizov and Boldy each scored a half dozen more goals with Hughes that they wouldn’t have without him, that puts them in that 50-goal range. Right now both players are projected to score 45 goals if they played in all remaining 51 games (unlikely). With the addition of Hughes they could become the first 50-50 duo since the 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings when Sergei Fedorov (56) and Ray Sheppard (52) accomplished the feat. The Red Wings also had a pretty good defenseman at the time running the power play by the name of Paul Coffey (they also had a young Nicklas Lidstrom).

Even two 40-goal guys is rare with Conor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl doing it in 2022-23.

The point being that with the addition of Hughes, a notorious playmaker, he will improve the Wild’s scoring chances perhaps more than if they went out and added another center.

The Bad:

Anyway, to you look at it, the Wild are giving up a lot of assets trading away four first-round draft picks for one player. Minnesota sports fans remember the last time a team did something similar, and it did not end well. Hughes could go end-to-end on his first shift and have his skate fly off his foot while he dangles the goalie and goes top shelf, but that immediate impact doesn’t always result in long-term success. Which is likely why Guerin pulled the trigger in the first place. He doesn’t want to win in three, four or seven years. He wants to win now, and Hughes gives the team a better chance to do that than three young guys who are still defining their skill sets amidst emerging careers.

But what does this deal do to organizational depth?

The hardest part of the deal for Wild fans to swallow was including 20-year-old Buium in the deal, especially after the strides he was making in such a short time in the league. His upside is huge, but the deal simply doesn’t happen without him included. Like momma used to say, “You gotta give, in order to get.”

Ohgren won’t be missed because he hasn’t produced much and may require a longer runway. Rossi’s potential was always there, especially coming off a 60-point output last season, but he seemed more like the green bean casserole at Thanksgiving dinner – he was fine, and there was room for him with the main course, he just wasn’t everyone’s favorite. And Rossi had a challenging time staying consistently healthy.

Which brings us to the (potentially) ugly.

The (Potentially) Ugly:

The Wild have a really hard time staying healthy, especially among the AARP gang. They are currently without Jake Middleton, Jonas Brodin (questionable), Marcus Foligno and Mats Zuccarello, four main cogs in their rolling tank. Army generals typically don’t give soldiers a ticket home when the unit is already depleted. Hughes’ armor is already a bit nicked, having missed time this season with the always-vague “lower-body injury” and 14 games last season.

Hughes missed time last season with a torn ligament in his hand and a torn oblique playing in only 68 games but still racked up 76 points, including 60 assists. In 2022-23 Hughes’ 75 assists ranked tied for 14th all-time for a defenseman in a season. Ten of those seasons belonged to Paul Coffey and Bobby Orr (and one to Minnesota’s own Phil Housley in 1992-93 when he had 79 helpers). Those 75 assists came in a full season of 82 games played.

Hughes’ ability to consistently stay healthy for a team that struggles to keep guys in the lineup could determine whether this trade pans out or not. The same can be said for Vancouver. If Rossi or Buium can’t stay healthy, they will get the short end of the stick.

Worst-case scenario is that Hughes becomes riddled with nagging injuries, can’t produce at the level he has, leaves via free agency in 2027 and the Wild are out five first rounders in a two-year span.

There’s also concern of the impact the trade can have on organizational depth, which can throw franchises into tail spins that include the dreaded term “rebuilding,” contribute to unhappy star players, front office personnel changes, and a deepening disgruntled fan base.

Of course there are best and worse-case scenarios for both teams.

Best-case scenario for the Wild is they win the Cup this year or next. At the very least they need to make a deep run in this year’s playoffs and become Cup contenders having finally added the missing pieces to the puzzle (Kaprizov signed, Wallstedt’s emergence, Hughes addition). Maybe they don’t get to the Western Conference Finals this year (maybe they do), but they have to get at least one series closer, or this deal won’t work in the minds of many Wild fans. If we keep getting closer, the chances of Hughes falling in love with our ‘mild’ winters (it is currently -13 degrees) and signing a long-term deal get better, which expands the window of winning a Cup.

If Hughes doesn’t sign a long-term deal, there is a caveat for the Wild. Because of his veteran status, the Wild would be highly compensated with two picks (potentially first rounders) and a player if he leaves via trade or as an unrestricted free agent, thus giving them much needed fuel to keep the engine running. So, there is a bit of a cushion if Hughes isn’t wearing a Wild sweater in the fall of 2027.

We can create dozens of what-if scenarios for both sides of this deal. If there are any certainties it is that Billy Guerin isn’t afraid to roll the dice. Is this deal a gamble? You bet. Is it reckless? Not when the reward is Lord Stanley’s Cup. I think most GMs would pull the trigger on this, especially with Kaprizov in his prime, Boldy emerging as a top-tier scorer, Erikkson Ek as perhaps the league’s best two-way forward, and the best young goalie in hockey to go with an already established netminder. And now, the Wild just landed one of the best players in the NHL.

Sure, every trade carries risk and reward, and because it does, it comes with a level of excitement that Wild fans have been eager to experience and deserve.

The new car smell will wear off, and we will get used to the new-look Wild with Hughes dancing along the blue line, puck on his stick while 97, 12,14, 36, 90 and everyone else have their sticks locked and loaded and ready to fire away.

And who knows, maybe, just maybe, both parties get exactly what they wanted. There doesn’t always have to be losers when it comes to trades and this could actually turn into a win-win situation. Imagine that, feeling good about that new car a week, month, even a year after the purchase…anything to quench that cognitive dissonance.

Rossi could fill a huge need as a top-end center for the Canucks and live up to his 80-point potential. Buium could be the franchise blue-liner the ‘Nucks need. Ohgren can develop into a top-6 forward, and maybe next year’s first rounder becomes an NHL mainstay.

As for the Wild, Billy pushed that gas pedal to the floor and he’s leaving it there so, buckle up and enjoy because this will be one fantastic, WILD ride!