The State of Our State of the Game

By T.R. Holler – LPH Contributor

Any discerning sports fan, dedicated athlete, or player parent knows how difficult it is to realize the dream of playing sport as a professional. Natural talent, genetics, extreme hard work, and dedication are mere prelude to uncontrollable variables of timing and luck forming that last gelatinous hurdle in getting to ‘The Show’ in any given sport.

Perhaps the most determining X-factors of pro potential, is the mental acuity to process a given sport’s nuances, its subtleties, at rapid speed and, of course, maintaining health. Wrap all these factors together and it’s truly an amazing accomplishment to make the pro level – let alone stay there and earn future contracts. A lot to digest for any player and family. And as Billy Beane said in ‘Moneyball’ referring to scouts and GMs, “You think you know, but ya don’t!”  Educated guesses, to be sure. Hence, the dawn of sport analytics.

Locally, within the friendly confines of our provincial “State of Hockey” borders our hockey youth embark each season with a love and thirst for the game unparalleled anywhere else in the U.S., and along for that ride are the uber-dedicated hockey parents. When keeping the game experience light-hearted and fun, hockey proves a rewarding experience for both parties filled with lifetime memories, and hopefully, passing on such traditions to future generations. However, in the current age of 24/7 news access, instant social media, ‘elite leagues’, and the pressure to over-achieve early and often, the experience can prove stressful and downright exhausting. No wonder that parental and player burnout is rampant. Happens all the time and is, unfortunately, understandable.

Considering this level of stress, let’s look at some current data touchpoints to help alleviate modern stressors and burst the pressure bubbles brought on by unnecessarily fast-tracking a player’s progression solely to ‘keep up’. We begin by breaking out the following data funnel, distilling from worldwide to national and local layers, and percentages of success along the way.

A SOBERING REALITY

The following is a global to local snapshot of hockey participation from the youth to the professional levels and the odds of graduating each layer on the way to the NHL, aka ‘The Show’. After all, as much as parents revel in youth hockey memories and camaraderie, Ma & Pa are hoping to achieve a sliver of a return on their youth investments, a good ROI, if you will. Fingers crossed, but that is the dream. Let’s break down that very prospectus:

Worldwide registered youth hockey players (age 6 -18) – 1,373, 294

U.S. registered youth hockey players (age 6 -18)  – 397,000

MN registered youth hockey players (age 6 -18) – 54,500 (#1 U.S. ranking)

U.S. registered High School hockey players (Age 15-18/varsity) – 35,000

MN registered High School hockey players (Age 15-18/varsity)    – 3,000

Worldwide (non-U.S.) achieving NCAA D1 status – 0.07% as 638 among 63 D1 teams/1,575 D1 roster spots from 976,294 (374 Canadian/165 Euro-Russia)

Worldwide (non-U.S.) achieving NHL roster status  – 0.056% as 539 out of 736 total NHL roster spots from 976,294 players

U.S. registered High School players achieving NCAA D1 status – 0.027% as 937 roster spots out of 35,000

U.S. registered High School players achieving NHL roster status – 0.0056% as 197 total U.S. born players of 736 NHL roster spots derived of 35,000 U.S. HS players

MN registered HS hockey players achieving NCAA D1 status – 8.2% as 249 of 937 U.S. total spots out of 1,575 D1 roster spots out of 3,000 base

MN registered HS hockey players achieving NHL roster status – 0.013% as 40 MN-born out of 197 total U.S. born for 736 roster spots from 3,000 total

Clear as mud?  I hear you, my head hurts too!  If nothing else, here’s a few takeaway highlights to remember:

• If your son plays MN youth followed by MN high school hockey, you’re in the right state as MN has the highest percentage in the U.S. for earning an NCAA D1 hockey scholarship at approximately 8%. MN born players total 249 at the NCAA D1 level out of 1,575 total players. Every high school team, every high school game you watch, albeit predominantly at the AA-level in MN*, you will see approximately 8% of the players enter D1 college hockey. However, 92% will not. This is the best percentage found comparatively. *Of the 40 Minnesotans in the NHL, 31played at the AA level.
• Deep dive into the 40 Minnesotans in the NHL by position? Sure, let’s do that;
  3 goalies, 18 forwards (5-C, 7-LW, 6-RW), and 19 defensemen. Hmmm…
• Your MN hockey player has a roughly 250% higher chance to make an NHL roster versus a player in any other U.S. state! Especially, versus Wisconsin. No, j/k.
  Of course, this actual percentage is 0.013% or ‘thirteen ten thousandths of 1%’, so, yeah, there’s that.
• In this modern era of scouts, advisors, off-season tourneys, and micro podcasts, just focus on progressing toward utilizing that NCAA scholarship for an education. Use hockey to get the monetary relief of ever-increasing tuition. Long-term, even if your player beats all the odds/percentages and achieves NHL status, they will still spend thirty years of their lives in a career. Prepare them accordingly and realize that the ROI you are hoping for started when your player was a termite, enjoy the ride.

LET THE PATH CHOOSE

Keep this article. Print it out, cut it out, screenshot it, laminate the thing! Just breathe, then read it again. Don’t get caught in the hype and cause célèbre. Now, breathe deep again…good, there ya go, all better!

Good scouts/advisors will find the talent. No matter how unique a path you choose, take your time, and don’t rush as you will still be able follow multiple paths. The vast majority of NCAA D1 teams want 20 yr. old freshman, not 18 yr. old’s, no matter if they come from the USHL, WHL or NAHL. Hair-trigger ‘rushing the process’ is the disease, not the symptom.

The reality is slim in terms of the NHL, beyond slim – ok, fine, its ‘winning-the-lottery’ slim, but there is hope. And hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, right Red? You can get there from here, but explore all your options, choose what is best for your player WITH your player and take your time in doing so. Never trade a player’s youth for the fast track as those tracks end and memories live forever. Does anything rushed ever prove worthwhile? Seldom, if ever. If nothing else, remember this: Aesop’s tortoise won the race, not the hare.

*Data pulled from listed sources based upon and through completion of 2024-25 hockey season. Sources: NHL.com, NCAA.com, USAhockey.com, theAthletic.com, NHLPA.com, Eliteprospects.com, @MNHockeyLife, STATISTA, and private scouting services data.